Friday 13th, April / 7:50 pm / Adelaide Oval
Who can forget Adelaide’s epic comeback against the Pies late last year? From 50 points down early in the third, to a Mitch McGovern after-the-siren goal to tie the game at 103 a piece. The result was crucial for the Crows in eventually securing top spot going into the finals.
Moving into this round 4 clash, the Crows are in superb form after a slow start – taking care of the reigning premiers in a comfortable win at home, and a resounding 49 point win against St Kilda at Etihad.
Collingwood, meanwhile, recovered from a slow start against Carlton to post their first win of the season.
The early word coming in is that Collingwood have lost both Taylor Adams and Jamie Elliott to hamstring injuries during training. Add to that fact that Adelaide haven’t lost to Collingwood since 2013 and their form at home is unreal.
It’d be silly to back against the Crows here, there’s just too many factors pointing to an Adelaide win. The remaining question is by how many points?
The Stats That Matter
Adelaide average 411 disposals per game, hitting at a league-high 77.5 efficiency rate. The Crows will have no trouble controlling the play and with Collingwood averaging a massive 62 clangers per game, it’s not hard to see Adelaide punishing the Pies off turnovers. To put it into perspective, Adelaide only average a league-low 40 clangers a game.
What Collingwood do well though, is tackle. They’re third in the league for tackles made and applying that sort of pressure will definitely help them stay within reachable distance.
Popular rookie pick Tom Doedee continues to impress in his first season. He rose an impressive $95.2k after his first three games proving an invaluable cash cow to have.
Bryce Gibbs leads the way for the Crows in the midfield, presenting as a nice POD with only 6% of coaches owning him.
Brodie Grundy is the best scoring ruckman so far rewarding coaches who picked him over the favoured Nic Nat, Kruezer and Maxy Gawn. A decent option if you aren’t happy with Kreuzer’s return so far.
Tip & Best Bets
With all things considered, you’re going to tip an Adelaide victory this Friday night. We can’t say Collingwood haven’t been competitive in their opening 3 games, and they will be again – but unfortunately for Pies fans the pressure will drop after half time and the Crows’ composure at home will see them achieve a comfortable win.
Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.15 / William Hill [1 unit]
Collingwood 1H +15.5 @ 1.89 / bet365 [1 unit]