Saturday 14th, April / 1:45 pm / UNSW Canberra Oval
Greater Western Sydney were stopped dead in their tracks last week against Sydney. The Giants had the chance to go 3-0 to start a season for the first time but Sydney spoilt that party.
Fremantle are sitting 2-1 as well, but have a significant percentage difference and sit 8 spots below them on the ladder. They were poor in round 1 but bounced back impressively with two wins at home. We have to give them credit for performing well against the Dons and Gold Coast, but taking the biggest trip in football to Western Sydney is going to prove a challenge.
Giant’s form at home is just as good as Adelaide’s home form. Like Friday’s game, and not unlike many other games this round, we have a team heavily favoured coming up against a team that just shouldn’t beat them. In saying that though, strange things happen every week in football.
Luckily for Giants’ fans, this match won’t be one of those strange moments and they should enjoy watching their team put in a full four-quarter performance.
The Stats That Matter
GWS this season have kicked the most goals of any team, Jeremy Cameron has kicked 12 goals so far – only Buddy has kicked more. They average 3 goals more than Freo a game and take a crucial 14 marks inside 50. They’re 5th in the league for tackles made while the Dockers sit a lowly 16th.
Both teams use the ball very well, hitting a target at 74.2% and 74.1% respectively. Despite using the ball well, Fremantle struggle to win the ball from a ruck contest averaging only 34 clearances a game, and have trouble getting the ball out of their defensive 50 averaging only 37 rebound 50s.
Josh Kelly was one of the most popular picks this season. He’s out this week with a groin injury but wasn’t setting the league alight like last season anyway. Still sitting at $602k he’s worth holding, but any longer on the sidelines – or a further decline in scoring it will be worth cashing in or using him in your plans to acquire Dangerfield.
Stephen Coniglio remains at a value price this week after going up $46k. If you don’t have him already, look at getting him in before lockout as he’s scoring like a premium – and at that price he’s an absolute steal!
Nat Fyfe scored 160 last week, and if you were lucky enough to have him as captain there’s a fair chance you won your league game and got a decent total in an otherwise tough week. He’s under $600k, but with a break even of 75, he won’t be this cheap again.
Tip & Best Bets
Giants. They average a 40 point win against Freo in their last 3. They have no Josh Kelly, but they have Coniglio. Ward. Whitfield. Shiel. Toby Greene comes back adding another dimension to their already potent forward line. Jeremy Cameron scores goals for fun.
GWS will kick away early and keep it that way. Ross Lyon is a smart coach, but I don’t think he has any tricks up his sleeve that could pull this one off. Giants.
GWS -30.5 / 1.92 / Sportsbet [1.5 units]
Wire to wire: GWS @ 1.68 / William Hill [1 unit]