Friday 20th, April / 7:50 / SCG
We unsuccessfully tipped a shock Adelaide loss to Collingwood last weekend, while Sydney pulled off a remarkable win against an inspired Bulldogs outfit.
This week, the Crows travel to Sydney minus a few stars players which will make an already tough matchup even tougher. Rory Sloane and Eddie Betts will both miss for Adelaide, while Gary Rohan returns for the Swans.
Adelaide will look to bounce back strongly after their disappointing home loss but might struggle in particular against this strong Sydney side. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games to Sydney and will need their senior players to really lift in the absence of the others.
If Sydney want to maintain their status as an AFL powerhouse, they need to win these games on the big stage – and at their own home ground. We’re backing a Sydney win here.
The Stats that Matter
Last week against Collingwood, Adelaide were smashed in the contested possessions by 35. Their conversion rate on hitting the scoreboard after entering the 50 was a very low 27%. The Crows will need to keep the ball inside 50 and put scoreboard pressure on the Swans to be in any position to win this game. They outplay Sydney by 5 inside 50 entries a game so this should be a focal point for the Crows.
Sydney made it count in front of goal last week, which in the end ultimately got them over the line. They were outplayed by the Dogs in many aspects of the game but expect the Swans to rectify that and come out to play tomorrow night.
It wasn’t just last week Sydney were on target in front of goal. They lead the competition in goal accuracy, even with Buddy kicking more behinds than goals at times.
Rory Sloane’s withdrawal from the clash hurts over 6% of teams this week. You’ll do okay to hold him though, and it’s not looking like a long stay on the sidelines. Save a trade.
Isaac Heeney is a very nice pick, and could be a an upgrade target for a cash cow on the bubble. He’s a DPP, making him an invaluable player to have. At 544k and averaging 109, he should be in your plans!
Tip and Best Bets
Last Friday night’s game was our only wrong tip last week. We’re going to rectify that by tipping a Sydney win. Here’s hoping Adelaide don’t burn us again!
Sydney should be too strong on their home deck. Adding to the fact that Sloane and Betts are out while the Swans regain Rohan, it’s likely that Sydney enjoy a comfortable win.
Sydney 1 – 39 / 2.15 / William Hill [1 unit]