Saturday 21st, April / MCG / 4:35pm
Carlton started off the season the best possible way. They kicked the first 5 goals on the match against the reigning premiers, but it’s all been downhill from there. They sit at the bottom of the ladder, winless, and it’s hard to see where a win might come.
West Coast have impressed with a win over the Cats and convincing wins over the Bulldogs and Suns. They sit second on the ladder with only percentage keeping them from the top spot. Win against Carlton, and they’ll go along way into proving a lot of people wrong. Most would have had the Eagles missing the 8, so it’s these games that they have to win.
Carlton also started strongly at the MCG against Collingwood, before the inevitable collapse took place. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them start well against the Eagles too.
Nobody can ignore West Coast’s horrid record at the MCG, but it’s doubtful that the Blues can put up enough fight to win this match. Josh Kennedy loves playing against his old club, in fact it was just round 21 last season when he kicked 6.3 against his former side.
The Stats that Matter
West Coast are the second best team in disposal efficiency so the Blues will need to lift their intensity and pressure on the ball in order to force some turnovers.
Carlton actually out perform West Coast in clearances per game and will look to take advantage of this on Saturday. Winning the ball is one thing, but consolidating the possessions inside 50 is another, and Carlton rank dead last for marks inside making it even tougher.
West Coast on the other hand have no trouble getting the ball inside 50. They have the second most inside 50s and marks inside 50 per game and last week put a score on the board with 60% of those entries.
Matthew Kreuzer will again miss this week. There’s better ruck options if you’ve kept him all this time, so look at moving him on for a better score return.
Nic Naitanui is one of those options you should consider for your ruck stocks. He averages an even 100 and is still less than 500k. Nic Nat’s scoring potential is huge, and once he gets going, there’s not much that can stop him
Tip and Best Bets
If Carlton can win the midfield battle and take their chances in front of goal, this game could be closer than expected. West Coast’s poor record at the MCG can’t be underestimated and it’ll no doubt be a factor for the coaching team and players.
West Coast is our tip and should get up, and they need to in order to play finals. They have a tough back-end of the season and they’ll look back on games like this if they end up missing out.
Carlton will come out firing but it could be the same story for Blues fans as they run out of steam later in the game.
First to 20 points: Carlton / 2.90 / William Hill [1 unit]
Carlton +33.5 / 1.93 / Bet365 [1 unit]