Saturday 21st, April / Adelaide Oval / 7:40 pm
Port Adelaide’s first loss last Sunday was an easy tip! The Bombers took care of them which kicked off a profitable Sunday.
Geelong led from start to finish in a straight-forward win against St Kilda.
This match up should be a great contest between two of this years top teams. Geelong have had the better of Port Adelaide in recent times, including a 3-2 recent record at Adelaide oval. The Cats love the underdog tag so expect them to put in a top performance here tomorrow night.
Port’s record at home this year and last has been pretty solid. This should give them enough confidence to really take it to the Cats. It’s the main reason they’re favourites for the clash. They’re going to bounce back strong after their poor performance last week, and with a top 4 finish the expectation, there’s added pressure to perform.
Geelong are 2-2 so far and need to make up some ground with the top of the back. A win here will certainly keep them in touch with the top 4. Dangerfield had a field day last time these teams played and you’d be smart to back him with a strong performance here. He hasn’t looked in dominant self since returning from injury, but if the Cats are up and about you can bet he will be too.
The Stats that Matter
Geelong are ranked equal second for rebound 50s. Turning defence into offence is something the Cats do well, and with an average of 15 goals a game so far this season it means they’ll go into the match with some confidence.
Port Adelaide have the fourth most disposals in the league so they’ll need to be able to use it well and make the most of their chances inside 50 in order to beat the Cats. Both teams rank in the top 6 for uncontested possessions so expect a free flowing game.
Port are currently facing a ruck crisis too, so expect Geelong to improve on their lowly 33 hit-outs a game – an average better than only North Melbourne.
Patrick Dangerfield dropped in price but still sits just above 700k. With a breakeven of 209, he’s expected to drop down even further. He’s still settling in since coming back from injury but he’s going to need to revisit that form of last year to be a lock at that price. We’re yet to fully come to terms with how his scoring may be affected with Ablett’s return, but time will tell! Don’t make any Danger-ous decisions just yet.
Robbie Gray is one of the most traded in players this week with a few others underperforming. He hasn’t scored below 100 this season so would definitely be a handy addition to you team if you don’t have him.
Tip and Best Bets
Oh man. This one’s tough. Based on H2H form, you’d go Cats. Based on improvement and form at home, you’ve gotta go Port.
With all things considered, I think this matchup will be won in the middle. It’ll be won by Geelong – just. Tip the Cats.
Geelong ML / 2.60 / Crownbet [1.5 units]
Geelong +13.5 / 1.90 / TAB [2 units]
Under 179.5 points / 1.90 / Sportsbet [1 unit]