AFL Round 5 – St Kilda vs GWS

Satuday 21st, April / Etihad Stadium 1:45 pm

St Kilda last week put in another poor performance. They’ve only won one game this season – against the Lions. They almost lost that one too but were able to compose and get the job done. They had a lot of expectation coming in to this season but have been very disappointing.

GWS will look to make the most of this match up against a poor St Kilda outfit. They enjoyed a comfortable win over Freo in Canberra last week and should win this one if they come in with the same mindset.

GWS don’t have the best record at Etihad. But against the Saints, it’s not bad at all. They lost to them at there last year but can boast two victories against St Kilda on their home deck. They also had a clean sweep of the stadium in 2016 – winning all three games played there.

As mentioned in our previews before, the giants are aΒ solid unit. They’re strong on every line, and it should again be a case of “no Josh Kelly – no worries”.

The Stats that Matter

St Kilda and GWS rank #1 and #2 for uncontested possessions respectively, and both dispose of the ball very efficiently.

St Kilda’s strengths are far outweighed by their weaknesses though. They rank last for clearances, third last for center clearances, last for goals scored and second last for goal accuracy. The Saints will need to improve on these aspects of their game in order to challenge the Giants and subsequently climb the ladder.

Along with using the ball well, the Giants rank among the competition’s best for inside 50s and marks inside.

Supercoach Watch

Jack Billings isn’t very popular with coaches at the moment. With a starting price of 500k and an average of only 66, you can understand why! If you didn’t jump off while he was still expensive, it’s probably best to ride it out and hope he comes back into form.

Stephen Coniglio continues to dominate and impress coaches. If you didn’t get him for his value price, you’ll be be shattered to know he’s now up to 529k. Missed opportunity! But not too late to jump on as he’s one of this years top scorers.

Tip and Best Bets

This one may be closer than predicted. St Kilda need to bounce back after weeks of mediocrity and there’s no better chance to do it than against a team they were able to beat on this ground last year. Seb Ross and Jack Steven both had field days on that game, so they’ll need to lift again to beat the Giants.

Beating them won’t come easy though. GWS are in better form, have better players, and are playing some very good football. GWS is the tip, but St Kilda won’t go down easily.

Under 178.5 / Sportsbet / 1.9 [1 unit]

St Kilda +20.5 / 1.92 / Crownbet [1 unit]

GWS 10-19 winning margin / 4.5 / Sportsbet [0.5 units]

Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals / 1.62 / Bet365 [1 unit]

 

 

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