Sunday 6th, May / MCG / 1:10 pm
Last week, Richmond put on the jets after three quarter time so run away comfortable winners against Collingwood in what was another MCG win.
Fremantle came up short against West Coast in the derby in what was thought by most as game of the round.
Freo have definitely made progress this year, but as all rebuilds go, it doesn’t matter until you can convert the effort in to four points.
Bizarrely, Fremantle have won 4 of their last 5 against Richmond at the G. And it’s Richmond who have won their last 4 on the road against Freo.
Last time they met, Richmond won by 104 points which well made up for the after-the-siren loss to Freo earlier last season.
Fremantle, taking into account all of that, as well as the fact that Richmond don’t back up well after their ANZAC Day Eve clash, would be going into the game fairly confident. Here’s Richmond’s form the weeks following their ANZAC clash:
76 point loss vs Adelaide / AO
5 point loss vs Bulldogs / Etihad
35 points loss vs Port / MCG
46 point loss vs Hawks / MCG
9 point loss vs Geelong / MCG
35 point loss vs North / Blundstone
As you can see, they don’t back up well at all. Apart from their win against Collingwood last week, they haven’t won in the last three years in the two rounds following that ANZAC clash.
Of course, they’re now the reigning premiers, coming off a record 12 wins in a row at the MCG, and are the benchmark team of the competition.
Keys to Victory:
There’s a reason Richmond are the benchmark team. They rank #1 in the following areas:
- Center clearances
- Insidee 50s
- Marks I50
- Total points
Fremantle are second for disposal efficiently this year which will be put to the test against a team based around applying pressure on the ball. Nat Fyfe is in the top three in the AFL for clearances and contested possessions so a big game from the former Brownlow medallist is a must.
Richmond have 4 players on their injury list, while the Dockers haven’t been as lucky with 10 players including Lee Spurr and Michael Walters unavailable to choose from.
Tip and Best Bets
Richmond will extend their MCG winnings streak to 13 games this afternoon.
As good as their form has been, the line has now drifted to 41.5 and we’re not sure Richmond have the juice to cover but will be not surprised if they do.
Fremantle +41.5 / 1.95 / Pointsbet [1 unit]
Under 167.5 points / 1.90 / Sportsbet [1 unit]